Trump's Ukrainian Peace Plan Constitutes a Benefit to Putin

For a brief period, Trump seemed to embrace a strong approach concerning Ukraine. Following delivering threats of "severe consequences" in August if Putin continued hindering truce discussions, Trump eventually introduced considerable penalties on the Russian primary oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously hindered Putin's capacity to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, through his recently unveiled comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, reportedly drafted by both nations' diplomats excluding Ukraine's or European involvement, Trump has clearly returned to his pro-Putin stance.

Benefiting Aggression

The former president's proposal would effectively reward the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Although bold proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", much of the plan in reality weaken that same sovereignty. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his corporate experience, Trump seems to consider the war as a simple territorial dispute, as if giving Russia a portion of Ukraine's land will please the president. But, Putin's military campaign is not simply about controlling a destroyed swath of economically weakened territory in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's apparent goal to weaken it so it stops acts as an appealing model for the Russian citizens of the responsible governance that his increasing autocracy withholds them.

Land Concessions

Although maintaining in place the already split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would require Ukraine to give up all of Donetsk region. Aside from favoring Russia with land that its military have been failed to seize in exceeding a lengthy period of fighting, this concession would make Ukrainian military defenses dangerously compromised.

This region is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the well-established protective structures that are a essential impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine leave these defenses, giving Russian forces a open path to the capital if he later decide to resume the war.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Furthermore, in a step that would facilitate future fighting more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would force the nation to diminish the numbers of its troops from their current large number personnel to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's proposal places no similar limits on Russian forces.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's efforts to depict the nation's chosen by the people administration as Nazis, the proposal asserts: "All Nazi doctrine and activities must be condemned and prohibited." As if to highlight this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal sets no requirement that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Assurances

Certainly, the plan includes Russia pledge not to "attack bordering nations" and to "enshrine in law its position of peaceful relations towards the EU and Ukraine". But given that Putin has broken equivalent treaties in the past – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to recognize the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a return of occupied areas in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – for what reason should we believe Russia on this occasion?

That is why Ukraine has been so insistent on external defense commitments. While the plan warns of a "decisive joint armed reaction" should the Russian Federation restart its aggression, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the details range from fuzzy to concerning. The plan would not only deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent Nato members from stationing military personnel on Ukraine's soil, effectively preventing the security presence, reportedly commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to stop Russia from replenishing his reduced troops, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Response

An additional side agreement reportedly would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any later "significant, planned, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This indicates a armed reaction. But in contrast to a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's best deterrent against future hostilities – the effectiveness of the side agreement would hinge on the dedication of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to respond militarily to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not